NEW YORK, NY.- ARTBnk analyzed 696 works from sales held at Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips in July, August and September to evaluate the state of the fine art market today. Within this analysis, we’ll break down how these works performed across market sectors by utilizing presale fair market value—ARTBnk Value—for each individual work of art, determined through ARTBnk's unique AI valuation methodology which combines thousands of quantitative and qualitative data points.

TOTALS

The 570 lots sold totaled $61,046,300 in sales, 7.6% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $56,759,902, and 11.6% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $54,714,653.



OUTLIERS

89 (15.6%) of the 570 sold lots achieved sold prices greater than 100% above ARTBnk Value. While it’s typical that a handful of lots will achieve results of this level, these outliers are generally not representative of an overall market shift for an artist. When we exclude these outliers from sale totals, the 481 remaining sold lots totaled $52,369,187 in sales, -2.7% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $53,812,156, and 2.3% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $51,191,358.





HIGH END MARKET



EDWARD COLEY BURNE-JONES (1833-1898), The Prince entering the Briar Wood, 1869. Oil on canvas, 42 x 72.25 in. Estimate: $410,241 - $683,735, ARTBnk Value: $3,401,815. Sold: $3,312,698 Christie's London July 08, 2021.

The 4 lots sold in the high end market totaled $10,696,470 in sales, -4.3% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $11,181,060, and -9.2% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $11,784,855. No lots qualified as outliers in this market sector.



MIDDLE MARKET



KENNY SCHARF (b. 1958), Red Ball Jets and Orangetricity, 1983. Oil and spray paint on canvas, 118 x 93 cm. Estimate: $54,698 - $82,048, ARTBnk Value: $69,411. Sold: $546,988 Christie's London July 02, 2021.

The 139 lots sold in the middle market totaled $35,742,372 in sales, 14.9% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $31,103,343, and 17.9% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $30,315,684. Excluding outliers, the 113 total lots sold in the middle market totaled $29,673,561 in sales, 2.0% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $29,081,169, and 6.4% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $27,880,955. The 26 outliers sold in the middle market totaled $6,068,811 in sales, 200.1% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $2,022,174, and 149.3% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $2,434,729.





LOW END MARKET



BEAUFORD DELANEY (1901 - 1979), Untitled, 1963, oil on canvas, 24 x 30 in. Estimate: $30,000 - $50,000, ARTBnk Value: $73,394. Sold: $81,900 Sotheby's New York July 21. 2021

The 427 lots sold in the low end market totaled $14,607,458 in sales, 0.9% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $14,475,499, and 15.8% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $12,614,115. Excluding outliers, the 364 total lots sold in the low end market totaled $11,999,156 in sales, -11.4% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $13,549,927, and 4.1% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $11,525,549. The 63 outliers sold in the low end market totaled $2,608,302 in sales, 181.8% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $925,572, and 139.6% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $1,088,566.





GUARANTEES



KEHINDE WILEY (b. 1977), Passing/Posing, Jean de Carodelet, 2004. Oil and enamel on canvas, 270.5 x 209.6 cm. Estimate: $164,096 - $246,144, ARTBNK VALUE: $270,445. Sold: $206,761 Phillips London July 13, 2021.

The 12 total lots sold with guarantees totaled $3,502,901 in sales, -11.2% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $3,944,062, and -6.1% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $3,729,850. This is compared to the 558 total lots sold without guarantees which totaled $57,543,399 in sales, 9.0% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $52,815,840, and 12.9% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $50,984,803.





Excluding outliers, the 12 total lots sold with guarantees totaled $3,502,901 in sales, -11.2% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $3,944,062, and -6.1% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $3,729,850. The 469 total lots sold without guarantees, excluding outliers, which totaled $48,866,286 in sales, -2.0% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $49,868,094, and 3.0% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $47,461,508. No lots sold with guarantees qualified as outliers, selling for greater than 100% of their high estimate. This is in contrast with the 89 total lots sold without guarantees that qualified as outliers, which totaled $8,677,113 in sales, 194.4% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $2,947,746, and 146.3% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $3,523,295.





BUY-INS

126 of 696 lots offered in this analysis failed to sell, for a buy-in rate of 15.3%. The buy-in rate of 16.7% in the high end market compared with rates of 18.3% in the middle market and 14.2% in the low end market.



REPEAT SALES

65 sold lots were repeat sales, having previously sold at auction. 69.2% of the repeat sales generated positive returns. The high end market saw 100.0% generating positive returns, the highest of the three categories. After excluding outlier repeat sales that generated a Compound Annual Return (CAR) of greater than 100%, the high end market also saw the highest median CAR of 15.8%, compared to 6.6% in the middle market and 0.7% in the low end market.



CONCLUSION

The middle market was the only sector to exceed ARTBnk Value both with and without outliers included. With only 4 lots meeting the threshold of a sold price of $1,000,000 and above, the high end of the market fell short of ARTBnk Value whether outliers were included or excluded. While the low end of the market exceeded ARTBnk Value in aggregate, once outliers were excluded, low end sale totals fell below aggregated ARTBnk Value.