NEW YORK, NY.- ARTBnk analyzed 717 works up for auction at recent day and evening sales held at Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips to evaluate the state of the fine art market today. Within this analysis, we’ll break down how these works performed across market sectors by utilizing presale fair market value—ARTBnk Value—for each individual work of art, determined through ARTBnk's unique AI valuation methodology which combines thousands of quantitative and qualitative data points with systematic regression analysis.

Totals

The 594 lots sold totaled $648,062,931 in sales, 9.0% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $594,598,218, and 0.8% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $642,874,450.



Outliers

98 (16.5%) of the 594 sold lots achieved sold prices greater than 100% above ARTBnk Value. While it’s typical that a portion of lots will achieve results of this level, these outliers are generally not representative of an overall market shift for an artist. When we exclude these outliers from sale totals, the 496 remaining sold lots totaled $580,083,505 in sales, 1.5% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $571,260,711, and -5.0% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $610,902,670.





Estimate on Request

3 lots sold in this analysis were offered without published estimates, and therefore were not included along with sale totals measured against buyer’s premium adjusted mean estimates. These 3 works accumulated $16,340,800 in sales, 36.3% above aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $11,987,792.



High end of the market

The result for Christie's March 23rd single lot Hong Kong sale of Jean-Michel Basquiat's Warrior was very good, but with a guarantee in place, hardly a surprise. Hammering mid-estimate, the final sold price + buyer's premium of $41.8 million (323,600,000 HKD) just exceeded ARTBnk's highest Compound Annual Return rate for the artist (16.7% based on past sale performance) showing considerable strength in the Basquiat market and one that tracked to auction house expectations.



LOIE HOLLOWELL (b. 1983), Linked Lingams (yellow, green, blue, purple, pink), 2018,
oil, acrylic medium, sawdust, and high-density foam on linen mounted on panel, 122 x 91.5 cm.
Estimate: $386,912 - $644,854.
Sold: $2,129,310, Sotheby's Hong Kong June 18, 2021.

The 119 lots sold in the high end market totaled $538,448,884 in sales, 8.2% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $497,664,428, and -1.2% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $544,799,600. Excluding outliers, the 101 total lots sold in the high end market totaled $491,148,992 in sales, 2.0% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $481,744,479, and -6.0% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $522,538,735. The 18 outliers sold in the high end market totaled $47,299,892 in sales, 197.1% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $15,919,949, and 112.5% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $22,260,865.





Middle Market



AMOAKO BOAFO (b. 1984), Untitled, 2018, oil on canvas, 51 x 44.5 in.
Estimate: $80,000 - $120,000.
Sold: $655,200, Phillips New York June 23, 2021.

The 278 lots sold in the middle market totaled $100,559,492 in sales, 14.7% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $87,709,881, and 12.3% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $89,576,315. Excluding outliers, the 222 total lots sold in the middle market totaled $81,189,917 in sales, 0.5% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $80,790,901, and 0.8% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $80,531,116. The 56 outliers sold in the middle market totaled $19,369,575 in sales, 179.9% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $6,918,980, and 114.1% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $9,045,199.





Low End Market



KATHERINE BERNHARDT (b. 1975), Coco Rico, Papaya, Avocado + a Cigarette, 2015, acrylic on canvas, 72 x 60.375 in.
Estimate: $20,512 - $27,349.
Sold: $94,765, Sotheby's London July 01, 2021.

The 197 lots sold in the low end market totaled $9,054,555 in sales, -1.8% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $9,223,909, and 6.5% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $8,498,535. Excluding outliers, the 173 total lots sold in the low end market totaled $7,744,596 in sales, -11.2% below their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $8,725,331, and -1.1% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $7,832,819. The 24 outliers sold in the low end market totaled $1,309,959 in sales, 162.7% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $498,578, and 96.8% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $665,716.





Guarantees



YAYOI KUSAMA (b. 1929), Nets Obsession, 2004, acrylic on canvas, 162.3 x 162.3 cm.
Estimate: $1,031,767 - $1,547,651.
Sold: $3,309,394, Phillips Hong Kong June 08, 2021.

The 57 total lots sold with guarantees totaled $305,138,530 in sales, 3.4% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $295,151,177, and -5.7% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $323,616,756. This is compared to the 537 total lots sold without guarantees which totaled $342,924,401 in sales, 14.5% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $299,447,041, and 7.4% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $319,257,694.





Excluding outliers, the 53 total lots sold with guarantees totaled $294,416,564 in sales, 1.2% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $290,924,288, and -7.4% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $318,064,590. The 443 total lots sold without guarantees, excluding outliers, which totaled $285,666,941 in sales, 1.9% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $280,336,423, and -2.4% below aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $292,838,080. 4 lots that sold with guarantees were outliers, selling for greater than 100% above ARTBnk Value. These guaranteed outliers totaled $10,721,966 in sales, 153.7% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $4,226,889, and 93.1% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $5,552,166. This is compared to the 94 total lots sold without guarantees that qualified as outliers, which totaled $57,257,460 in sales, 199.6% above their aggregated pre-sale ARTBnk Value totals of $19,110,618, and 116.7% above aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate totals of $26,419,614.





Buy Ins

120 of 717 lots offered in this analysis failed to sell, for a buy-in rate of 14.3%. The buy-in rate of 10.1% in the high end market compared with rates of 13.2% in the middle market and 17.9% in the low end market.



Conclusion

Sale totals exceeded past performance as measured by ARTBnk Value in both the high end and middle markets, including when outliers were removed from sale totals. The low end market was the only sector to see sale totals fall short of ARTBnk Value both with and without outliers included.